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Insights Brief Series #2 · May 2026 — Food EditionDeep Dive — Food & Agriculture

OIC Economic Impact Brief

US–Israel–Iran Regional Crisis 2026· Deep Dive: Food & Agriculture

Brief #2 — focused deep-dive on the OIC food and agriculture cluster. 23 HS code based sub-sectors scored on Direct + Indirect impact, with strategic options across four levers.

Key Question

“What are the medium- and long-term strategic positioning options for OIC economies in response to the US–Israel–Iran regional crisis?”

For OIC economic agencies, policymakers & corporate strategists.

$302B
2024 OIC Food Imports
$920B
OIC Food & Agri Cluster GDP
$110B
OIC Food Import Gaps 2024

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Live
Pre-Crisis Baseline
Member states57
Population~2B(24% of world)
Combined GDP$9.2T
Merch. exports$2.6T
Global export share10.6%
·
Brent (baseline)$70/bbl
Global oil reserves66%
Energy cluster VA$1.9T(20.6% GDP)
·
Intra-OIC trade$870B
Food deficit nations28(LIFD)
Chokepoint control4 of 5global oil transit
·
Islamic finance assets$5.98T
11 OIC clusters~74%of OIC GDP
Member states57
Population~2B(24% of world)
Combined GDP$9.2T
Merch. exports$2.6T
Global export share10.6%
·
Brent (baseline)$70/bbl
Global oil reserves66%
Energy cluster VA$1.9T(20.6% GDP)
·
Intra-OIC trade$870B
Food deficit nations28(LIFD)
Chokepoint control4 of 5global oil transit
·
Islamic finance assets$5.98T
11 OIC clusters~74%of OIC GDP

Structural findings — Brief #2, slide 7. Sources: ITC Trade Map, DinarStandard SGIE 2024/25, SESRIC.

$302B
OIC food imports (2024)
17.7% of global food trade
$83.3B
Intra-OIC supply
27.8% self-supply · CAGR 9.3% (2019–24)
$216B
Non-OIC supply
72.2% sourced externally — largest structural gap
10.0%
Share of OIC GDP
$920B value-added · 2nd-largest cluster

Methodology

Methodology

How the food deep-dive is scored — Crisis Impact Framework, Vulnerability → Strategic Levers, Glossary, References.

Adapted DS Innovation Megatrends Framework

Current State
Social · Economical · Political · Environmental
01
US-Israel-Iran War
Contextualized Current State
02
Relevant Technologies
03
Available Technologies
04
1
Scenario 1
Ceasefire / New Normal
→ Econ. impl.:Oil stabilises at $85–100; trade routes reopen over 6–12 months.
2
Scenario 2
Civil Unrest in Iran
→ Econ. impl.:Iran exports disrupted 1.5–2M bpd; proxy activity fragments; refugee pressure on TR & PK.
3a/3b
Scenario 3a / 3b
Protracted War
→ Econ. impl.:Hormuz severely restricted; GCC GDP –8 to –14% (Goldman); global GDP at risk $3.5T.
  • Med and LT
  • Macro themes
  • Regional themes
Informed by DS models: OIC clusters · National agendas · Islamic Economy · Past learnings (COVID · Suez canal · Ukraine War)
Adverse Effects
New Appetites

Expert Interviews

Primary validation from senior economists at IsDB, Bank Indonesia, ICDT, and DinarStandard's global partner network spanning 50+ years of combined OIC advisory experience across trade, finance, and policy.

Secondary Research

Trusted global sources: IMF, World Bank, IEA, WTO, FAO, UNCTAD, SIPRI, Goldman Sachs, Oxford Economics, Lloyd's of London. All data points are attributed to their original sources for independent verification.

AI Usage

AI tools assisted with data synthesis, scenario modelling support, and drafting. All outputs reviewed, validated, and refined by DinarStandard's senior analysts and subject-matter experts.

Output: Insights Brief Report format linked to a series of Roundtables. First Report sets macro framing; follow-up Updates cover sector/country-level deep dives.

How DinarStandard can help

Consultancy, ImpactIntell data platform, and the Signal Sensing Tool — full services lineup on the next page.

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Insight Brief Series

DinarStandard Insight Brief Series

Sequential deep-dives across the OIC industry clusters — building on Brief #1's macro framing. Each brief becomes a focused sub-dashboard edition of this product: switch between editions via the dropdown at the top of the dashboard to revisit published briefs as read-only snapshots.

How the series builds

Each brief is published as a sub-dashboard edition of this product. The dashboard shell stays consistent across editions — only the cluster in focus changes. Briefs from prior months remain accessible as read-only snapshots via the edition dropdown in the top-right of the dashboard. Older briefs may not include the newer modules (e.g. the food deep-dive layers added in Brief #2).

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DinarStandard Support

DinarStandard Support

How DinarStandard can help OIC governments and economic agencies navigate this crisis.

First publication sets the macro framing. Follow-up briefs provide sector and regional deep dives.

Consulting

Vulnerability Assessment & Strategic Planning

  • Supply chain vulnerability diagnostics: map your Hormuz/Suez corridor exposure, identify single points of failure.
  • Halal economy growth positioning: $2.43T market growing at 8.3% CAGR; boycott-driven consumer shift accelerating.
  • Islamic financing strategy: CIPS / mBridge integration, sukuk structuring, alternative settlement corridors.
  • Scenario-based strategic planning: calibrated to our four crisis scenarios, from ceasefire / new normal to protracted war.
  • ImpactIntell signal monitoring: early-warning alerts on chokepoint shifts, freight changes, and policy moves before they hit your P&L.
Featured

Signal Sensing Tool

Live OIC monitoring & early-warning

Continuous live monitoring of economic, trade, and geopolitical signals across OIC markets. Detects early-warning shifts in supply chains, investment flows, commodity pricing, and policy changes — moving agencies from reactive crisis management to proactive strategic positioning.

Trade & Supply Chain Alerts
Chokepoint disruptions, freight shifts, corridor rerouting.
Investment Flow Tracking
FDI, SWF movements, startup funding across OIC.
Policy & Sanctions Monitor
Regulatory changes, sanctions risk, currency shifts.

Impact Intel

Proprietary Data Intelligence Platform

Predictive analytics dashboard covering the global Islamic and OIC economy — real-time market sizing, investment tracking, trade flow analysis, and sector benchmarking across 57 OIC member states.

Powers the SGIE Report, GIFT Report, and custom client intelligence.

Ready to engage?

Policy briefings, ImpactIntell licenses, or a Signal Sensing pilot — start a conversation.

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